Augusta-Richmond, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS62 KFFC 310237
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1037 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...Late Evening Update|...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The main concern overnight will be the development of low clouds
and patchy dense fog. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with
values in the 60s (upper 50s in the mountains). Latest hi-res
guidance indicates storms moving in around sunrise in NW GA
tracking SE. Storms on the southern end, namely west-central GA,
look to strengthen in the afternoon while advancing southeast.
Damaging winds still look to be the primary threat, though brief
spin up tornadoes and an isolated hail threat are secondary
hazards. There is also indicate of another line of showers
developing (and perhaps weakening) along the primary frontal
boundary later in the evening. Made some tweaks to reflect current
trends but forecast largely remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Key messages:

 - A few strong to severe storms possible late this afternoon and
   early this evening.

 - Severe storms will be possible ahead of a cold front which will be
   sweeping across the area late tonight into Monday.

A shortwave has shifted E of the area this afternoon, with mostly
zonal flow aloft. A broader shortwave will approach the area late
tonight and on Monday. A surface cold front extending from a surface
low near Chicago to N TX will push across the area on Monday,
exiting the area Monday evening.

Deep layer moisture continues to increase across the region today.
This is manifesting in the form of multi-layered cloudiness across
the area. Cloud cover is also cutting down on diurnal
destabilization. However, model soundings are indicating deep, thin
CAPE, and a few strong to borderline severe storms remain possible
into early evening in areas that receive more sun.

Storms ahead of the aforementioned cold front will approach the
County Warning Area (CWA) late tonight. As a result, isolated strong
storms may begin to develop after midnight tonight (mostly across NW
GA), but the greatest threat of strong to severe storms is expected
to hold off until Monday morning along and ahead of the actual front.
CAPE values will increase to 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the front, with
effective shear around 40 kts. SPC has an enhanced risk of severe
storms across the area late tonight and on Monday. The greatest
threat will be from gusty, straight line winds, but a few storms may
produce tornadoes or hail.

Temperatures will be warm during the short term period, with lows
mostly in the muggy 60s tonight (15 to 20 degrees above normal) and
highs on Monday ranging from the upper 60s in the NW mountains to
the lower 80s in the extreme SE (around 5 degrees above normal).
Cooler air will filter in behind the cold front Monday night, with
lows ranging from the lower to mid 40s across the N to near 60 in the
extreme SE. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A post-frontal airmass and light northwesterly flow will settle in
over north and central Georgia by Tuesday morning. Low temperatures
will begin in the low to mid 40s roughly north of the the I-85
corridor and in the upper 40s to mid 50s to the south. Otherwise,
cooling behind the front will not be especially significant. A weak
ridge will move across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday while near
surface pressure begins to increase. The influence of high pressure
centered to the north will promote benign weather conditions and
mostly clear skies throughout the day and will lead to a quick
recovery of temperatures. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will rise into
the low to mid 70s in north Georgia and in the upper 70s to low 80s
in central Georgia. By Wednesday morning, the axis of the ridge will
clear the forecast area to the east, with southwesterly upper level
flow setting up in its wake. Low-level flow will meanwhile shift to
the southeast. Steady advection of warm and moist air within this
flow pattern will allow dewpoints to climb into the upper 50s to mid
60s by Wednesday afternoon. Furthermore, high temperatures. Highs
will continue to climb each day during the later part of the week,
rising into the mid 80s to low 90s each afternoon from Thursday
through Saturday (15-20 degrees above daily averages). Along with
approaching daily records, these temperatures will combine with
increasing dewpoints for a muggy, summer-like feel.

Isolated to scattered showers will also return to portions of north
Georgia and portions of central Georgia by Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough and surface low will move
from the northern Great Plains across the northern Great Plains
region. A cold front will extend southwestward through the Tennessee
Valley and towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Warm air
advection will persist ahead of this front, as indicated by the
unseasonably warm days at the end of the period. As the parent low
occludes and continues to move away into southeast Canada, it is
looking increasingly likely that the front will become elongated
from WSW to ENE roughly parallel to the upper level flow and stall
to the north of the state line. With ample surface instability due
to the hot and humid conditions, storms that develop in the vicinity
of the frontal boundary could spread into north Georgia, with slight
chance to chance PoPs being maintained roughly north of I-20 from
Thursday through Saturday. SBCAPE values as high as 1000-1500 J/kg
in the afternoons combined with deep layer bulk shear values of 35-
45 kts to the south of the frontal boundary suggests the potential
of at least isolated storms becoming strong to severe. However, at
this time, the more organized and substantial severe weather threat
is expected to remain north and west of the forecast area, but will
ultimately depend on the evolution of the low pressure system and
where the associated cold front stalls.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

SCT shra and ISO tsra continues to diminish this evening. Given
light winds overnight and ample moisture, expecting cigs to tank
as early as 02/03z -- down to IFR and perhaps patchy LIFR around
06z. Patchy fog may also develop at/near CSG/MCN so will need to
monitor those trends. Winds may be VRB overnight but < 3kts and
will not fully move to the SW side until closer to 12z. SHRA and
TSRA will be moving through the area between 14-20z Monday. SW
winds pick up with gusts nearing 20kts after 18z. MVFR to low VFR cigs
remain likely through the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on timing of IFR cigs and tsra
High confidence on remaining elements

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  76  61  76 /   0  70  50  90
Atlanta         60  76  64  74 /   0  70  40  90
Blairsville     54  68  57  70 /   0  70  70  90
Cartersville    60  76  61  75 /  20  70  50  90
Columbus        60  80  63  77 /   0  70  30  90
Gainesville     59  73  62  73 /   0  70  60  90
Macon           56  80  63  79 /   0 100  50  90
Rome            60  76  61  75 /   0  70  60  90
Peachtree City  57  77  62  75 /   0  70  30  90
Vidalia         62  81  63  83 /   0 100  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...07